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Methodology

Interpreting Results

Numbers alone don't make decisions. Here's what they mean in practice.

When is a project viable?

Viability is not a single number — it is a combination of metrics that together paint a picture of whether a development project is worth pursuing. Different thresholds apply depending on the type of project, the market, and the developer's risk appetite.

As a starting point, here are the benchmarks most professionals use when evaluating a development appraisal:

  • Return on Cost above 15-20% is generally considered viable for developers. Below this, the risk-reward ratio may not justify the effort and capital commitment.
  • Margin above 15% indicates healthy profitability — enough buffer to absorb moderate cost overruns or sales delays.
  • IRR above 15% suggests good time-weighted returns, meaning your capital is working efficiently over the project lifecycle.

But context always matters. A 12% RoC in a low-risk market with pre-sales may be safer than a 25% RoC in an untested location with no comparable evidence. Your risk profile, market conditions, and track record all influence what "viable" means for you.

Key takeaway

There is no universal "good" number. Viability is the combination of return metrics, risk profile, and market context. Use benchmarks as a starting point, not as absolute rules.

Warning signs to watch

Even a project that looks profitable on paper can carry hidden risks. The appraisal dashboard surfaces these risks through specific metrics and patterns. Knowing what to look for can prevent costly mistakes.

  • Negative profit — the project loses money at current assumptions. This is the clearest red flag and means the numbers do not work without changes to inputs.
  • Margin below 10% — very thin profitability. A small cost overrun or sales delay wipes out the entire profit. There is no buffer for the unexpected.
  • High IRR but low absolute profit — this often indicates a small project with quick turnaround. The percentage looks attractive, but the actual money earned may not justify the time and overhead.
  • Peak funding close to or exceeding available equity — this signals financing risk. If the project needs more cash than you can access, you face a funding gap that could stall construction.
  • Break-even beyond the project timeline — a cash flow problem. If you cannot recover costs within the planned schedule, the project depends on optimistic sales timing.

These warning signs rarely appear in isolation. A project with thin margins and high peak funding is significantly riskier than one with just thin margins alone. Always look at the full picture.

Key takeaway

Watch for combinations of warning signs. A single weak metric might be manageable, but multiple warnings together indicate structural risk in the project.

How different stakeholders read results

The same appraisal tells different stories depending on who is reading it. Each stakeholder focuses on different metrics because they carry different risks and have different objectives.

Developer

Focuses on Profit, RoC, and IRR. The core question: "Is this worth my time and capital?" Developers need to see that the return justifies the risk, effort, and opportunity cost of tying up their equity.

Bank / Lender

Focuses on LTV, LTC, and sensitivity analysis. The core question: "What is my downside exposure?" Lenders want to know their loan is safe even if things go wrong — they care about the floor, not the ceiling.

Consultant

Focuses on scenarios and sensitivity. The core question: "What should I advise my client?" Consultants need to present a balanced view of upside potential and downside risk across multiple assumptions.

Investor

Focuses on IRR, MOIC, and equity requirement. The core question: "What is my return on capital?" Investors compare this project against other opportunities and need to see efficient use of their equity.

Understanding your audience changes how you read and present the same data. A developer might celebrate a 25% RoC, but a bank reviewing the same project will focus entirely on what happens in the downside scenario.

Key takeaway

Know your audience before presenting results. The same project data supports different narratives depending on whether you are talking to a developer, lender, consultant, or investor.

Sensitivity tells you more than the base case

The base case is your best estimate — but real estate development rarely goes exactly to plan. Sensitivity analysis tests what happens when your assumptions are wrong, and that is where the real insight lives.

Consider two projects:

  • Project A: 25% RoC in the base case, but -5% in the downside scenario. This project is fragile — a small shift in market conditions erases all profit and creates a loss.
  • Project B: 15% RoC in the base case, but still 8% even in the worst case. This project is resilient — even when things go wrong, it still delivers a reasonable return.

Which project would you rather build? The answer depends on your risk tolerance, but the point is clear: the base case alone does not tell you enough. Sensitivity analysis reveals how robust your project truly is.

The sensitivity heatmap in Profivo tests two variables simultaneously across a range of values. The more green cells you see, the more resilient the project. A heatmap dominated by red means small changes push the project into loss territory.

Key takeaway

The base case tells you what could happen. Sensitivity tells you what could go wrong. Always check both before making a decision.

Profit vs Cash Flow — understanding the difference

Profit and cash flow are two fundamentally different concepts, and confusing them is one of the most common mistakes in development appraisal. A project can be profitable on paper but still run out of cash during construction.

Profit is the final number: total revenue minus total costs. It tells you what you earn when the project is complete. Cash flow is about timing — when money comes in and when it goes out. During construction, costs accumulate every month while revenue typically arrives only after units are complete and sold.

This timing gap creates a funding requirement. The peak funding metric in Profivo shows the maximum amount of cash your project needs at any point during its lifecycle. This is the real capital requirement — the money you need access to, whether through equity, debt, or a combination.

The break-even month shows when cumulative revenue finally exceeds cumulative costs. Until that point, the project is consuming cash. After that point, it starts paying back. If break-even comes later than expected — because sales are slow or construction is delayed — you need more capital for longer.

Key takeaway

Profit is theoretical. Cash flow is survival. Always check peak funding and break-even month alongside profit to understand the real financial demands of your project.

How to present results

The same data can support or undermine your case depending on how you present it. Different audiences need different entry points into the appraisal, and leading with the wrong metrics can derail a conversation before it starts.

To a board or investment committee

Lead with headline metrics: Profit, Return on Cost, and IRR. These are the numbers that drive go/no-go decisions. Follow with a risk summary showing the downside scenario and key sensitivities. Boards want confidence that the team has stress-tested the assumptions.

To a bank or lender

Lead with LTV and LTC ratios — these are the metrics lenders use to evaluate their exposure. Show the sensitivity analysis to demonstrate downside protection, and emphasize conservative assumptions like contingency buffers. Banks care about getting their money back, not about your upside.

To investors

Lead with IRR, MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital), and equity multiple. Investors compare opportunities, so time-weighted returns and capital efficiency matter most. Show them how their equity works and when they get it back.

To your internal team

Use the full dashboard with all scenarios for comprehensive decision-making. The internal team needs to understand every angle — from headline profitability to detailed cash flow timing to worst-case scenarios. This is where Profivo's complete view adds the most value.

Key takeaway

Match your presentation to your audience. Lead with the metrics they care about most, then support with the detail they need to build confidence in the project.

Model your own project.

See these metrics in action with your own numbers.